A simulation model for football championships

Ruud Koning, Michael Koolhaas and Gusta Renes
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Gusta Renes: Groningen University

No 01A65, Research Report from University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management)

Abstract: In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.

Date: 2001
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