A probabilistic analysis of the Dutch lotto

Ruud Koning and Thijs Vermaat
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Thijs Vermaat: Groningen University

No 02F58, Research Report from University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management)

Abstract: The size of the jackpot of the American powerball lottery that fell in August 2001 has generated a lot of interest in the probability of winning a lottery, both in the United States and elsewhere. Many people dream of becoming rich in a single moment. We calculate the probabilities of winning prizes, and the expected pay-off of the Dutch Lotto. We also address an important issue: are the numbers and color drawn truly random? We analyze draws of the Lotto from 1974 onwards. It is impractical to test whether each possible draw occurs according to its expected frequency. It is possible, though, to test different implications of the hypothesis that the numbers and colors are drawn randomly. We find that there is no evidence against the hypothesis that the numbered balls are drawn randomly, but the hypothesis that the colored ball is drawn randomly is rejected decisively.

Date: 2002
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