Does uncertainty affect economic growth?: an empirical analysis

Robert Lensink, Hong Bo and Elmer Sterken

No 99E23, Research Report from University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management)

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measure on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during 1970-1995. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.

Date: 1999
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Journal Article: Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis (1999)
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