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Mario Cunha () and Christian Richter ()
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Mario Cunha: Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto and Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais

No 47, Working Papers from The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology

Abstract: In this paper we model the impact of climate dynamics on wine production temporal cycles for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro wine region. We identify the cyclical properties of wine production and which cycles are de-termined by spring temperature and soil water levels during summer. We find that the in-season spring temperature as well as the temperatures of two and three years ago explain about 65% of the variability of wine pro-duction. When the soil water level in summer is incorporated, the R2 in-creases to 83% minimizing the Akaike criterion. The effects of soil water in wine production are depending on the timing. The in-season effect of an increase in soil water is negative, whilst soil water from two and three years ago have a positive effect on wine production. There is a stable but non- constant link between production and the spring temperature. The temper-ature is responsible for two long-medium cycles of 5.8 year and 4.2 years as well as a short one of 2.4 years that began since the 80s. The soil water level can explain 60% of the 7 years cycles of wine production as well as a short one of 2.3 years cycle which has been happening since the 90s. We also identify a shift of the relative importance away from temperature to soil water. Despite using a new an extended dataset, our results largely confirm the results of the impact of climate on the wine production in Douro region in our previous research. Modelling the impact of climate on the wine production can be an important instrument contributing for mitigation strategies facing the projected climate conditions in order to remain com-petitive in the market.

Keywords: climate variability; wine production; time-varying spectra; Kalman filter; Douro region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q16 Q25 Q54 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2018-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-knm
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