Avaliação da Eficácia da Política de Garantia de Preços mínimos para o Milho em Grãos

Gabriel Pinto Nogueira de Moura and Vander Mendes Lucas

No 106/2022, Economics and Politics Working Paper Series from Economics and Politics Research Group (EPRG), University of Brasília

Abstract: The Minimum Price Guarantee Policy (PGPM) has, among its objectives, the guarantee of a minimum income for rural production by reducing the risk of negative variations in the price of the product served by the policy. The present work presents an analysis of the effect of the policy on corn grain prices in the State of Mato Grosso. It presents a literature review on the effectiveness of the PGPM, followed by an analysis for the data of the time series of prices according to corn in grains, in relation to time series referring to the policy instruments. A multiple regression model with ARIMA residues was used, as well as a quantile regression model, incorporating the ARIMA model. The results demonstrate an ineffectiveness of the public policy and, so, this article concludes with possible hypotheses for this finding and contributions to further researchs.

Keywords: PGPM; Preços mínimos; Regressão quantílica; ARIMAX; Minimum price policy; Quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-08-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gvn:eprgwp:1062022

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23574393

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