Determinantes do risco de crédito rural no Brasil: uma crítica às renegociações da dívida rural

Lucas Braga de Melo and Moisés Resende Filho

No 58/2015, Economics and Politics Working Paper Series from Economics and Politics Research Group (EPRG), University of Brasília

Abstract: We identify the determinants of rural credit default in Brazil. We use estimates of two Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models selected based on general to specific approach and Akaike information criterion. Our results indicate the business cycle affects default rate, and lower interest rate, improved export conditions and processes of renegotiation of rural debt each reduces default. As we obtain a negative effect of higher debt on default, we hypothesize borrowers go into debt more than they would to force debt renegotiations, which reduce default. Therefore, rural credit debt renegotiations induce moral hazard.

Keywords: risco de crédito; inadimplência; crédito rural; modelagem ARDL; credit risk; default rate; rural credit; ARLD modeling; G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G32 G38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-10-14
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Journal Article: Determinantes do risco de crédito rural no Brasil: uma crítica às renegociações da dívida rural (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gvn:eprgwp:582015

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23601660

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