Royalties do petróleo, reeleição e ciclos políticos: um estudo econométrico para as eleições municipais de 2008 e 2012

Eduardo Dornelas Munhoz and Moisés Resende Filho

No 75/2017, Economics and Politics Working Paper Series from Economics and Politics Research Group (EPRG), University of Brasília

Abstract: We investigated the effect of oil royalties on the probability of reelection in Brazil based on the literature on the impact of oil royalties on municipal public accounts and on theories of political cycles and voting. We estimated logistic regression models with cross-sectional data from the municipal elections of 2008 and 2012, where the mayor's probability of re-election is a function of receiving or not oil royalties and control variables for political and business cycles, socioeconomic and educational development of the municipality, personal characteristics and partisan vertical alignment of the mayor (mayor-governor-president). Although the regressions were not significant for the 2012 elections, the results for 2008 indicated that oil royalties do not affect the probability of re-election. These results also indicated that mayors from municipalities with more educated voters and who induce political cycles are less likely to be reelected, while mayors with a greater political capital stock, politically aligned with the governor and from municipalities with better socioeconomic conditions are more likely to be reelected.

Keywords: royalties do petróleo; reeleição; eleições municipais; teorias de ciclos políticos; regressões logísticas; oil royalties; re-election; municipal elections; political business cycles theories; logistic regressions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C35 H30 H54 H70 Q32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-08-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gvn:eprgwp:752017

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23594512

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