Chinese Provincial Macroeconomic Data Revisions

Shirley Hsuan Hsieh
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Shirley Hsuan Hsieh: George Washington University

Working Papers from The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: This paper examines the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions at the provincial level. Various characteristics of the data revisions are identified. Do provincial data revisions suggest systematic biases in the initial reports? Do these biases differ by macroeconomic variable? How do provincial data revisions compare to national data revisions? We test whether first release and second release estimates can predict the final latest estimates. We conclude that despite second release estimates capturing more information, the statistically significant F-test rejects the Mincer-Zarnowitz joint test of unbiasedness and efficiency for both the first and second releases. Lastly, the direction of the first and second revisions suggests a general trend of underestimation in the provincial initial reports.

Pages: 83 pages
Date: 2013-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2013-9

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