Chinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and Dependent Share

Carl Bonham and Calla Wiemer

No 2010-11R, Working Papers from University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa

Abstract: China's national saving rate rose rapidly in the 2000s after declining through the late 1990s. These dynamics are not readily explained by the precautionary motive, the institutional distribution of income, or reform related processes in general. Rather, we find a compelling explanation lies with GDP growth fluctuations and demographic shifts. We estimate a vector autoregressive model for the period 1978-2008, then generate in-sample simulations that successfully replicate the 2000s run-up in the saving rate. Our out of sample forecasts show the saving rate dropping in the 2010s as the dependent share falls and GDP growth moderates.

Keywords: Chinese Saving Dynamics; GDP Growth; Dependent Share; Savings Rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E21 O11 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2010-07-29, Revised 2012-01-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Chinese saving dynamics: the impact of GDP growth and the dependent share (2013)
Working Paper: Chinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hae:wpaper:2010-11r

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