The Downmarket Impact of New Multifamily Housing: Evidence from a Honolulu Condo Tower

Justin Tyndall, Limin Fang and Emi Kim
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Limin Fang: University of Hawai‘i at MÄ noa, Department of Economics
Emi Kim: University of Hawai‘i at MÄ noa, Department of Economics

No 2025-3, Working Papers from University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa

Abstract: We test whether new condominium construction generates vacancies in a local housing market through induced moves. Using detailed address-history microdata, we track households who moved into a newly built 512-unit condominium tower in Honolulu, Hawai'i, which included both market-rate and incomerestricted units. We identify prior addresses and follow vacancy chains across multiple rounds of moves. The vacated homes were substantially cheaper than the new units and spanned diverse locations and housing types. Income-restricted units produced fewer secondary vacancies, but those vacancies were concentrated at lower price points. Our results show that new condominium construction eases supply constraints and expands affordability in a local housing market, and the contrast between market-rate and income-restricted units has important implications for inclusionary zoning policies.

Keywords: Housing supply; Urban development; Land-use regulation; Filtering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2025-11
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