Priced in or priced out, left behind or thriving: A price–income decomposition of US intercity migration

Erich Schwartz () and Steven Bond-Smith ()
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Erich Schwartz: University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
Steven Bond-Smith: University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa

No 2026-3, Working Papers from University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa

Abstract: We develop and apply a transparent diagnostic framework that decomposes predicted domestic net migration across U.S. metropolitan areas into additive components associated with local incomes, local prices, persistent place-specific factors, and a national time drift. We estimate a fixed-effects panel regression of domestic net migration as a function of income and price measures and decompose fitted migration into income and price components by metro area. The results are descriptive, not causal. We use these correlations to diagnose local migration pressure and create a coherent classification of each city by which pressures are most salient locally: priced in or priced out, thriving or left behind. We find that income–price configurations align with population movements across U.S. metropolitan areas, with roughly four-fifths of metro areas experiencing offsetting pressures. The typology reveals whether a city’s migration pressure is predominantly income-related or price-related, informing place-based policy discussions about which margin warrants attention.

Keywords: domestic migration; cost of living; spatial equilibrium; affordability; income (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 R11 R23 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2026-11
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