 Will Japan's Current Account Turn to Deficit?F. Gerard Adams and Byron Gangnes () No 200010, Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics Abstract: The Japanese current account has been in surplus since 1981, ranging from 1% to more than 4% of GDP. In this paper, we review the macroeconomic forces that have driven the surplus and describe likely changes in the first part of the next century. In coming years, structural change in Japan's economy-population aging, the globalization of production, and financial market reforms-will alter the underlying determinants of the surplus. While the net effect of these forces is difficult to predict, the most likely outcome is a gradual closing of the current account gap. We use large-model simulation analysis to evaluate the potential for specific developments to alter the current account, and we assess their likely impact on the Japanese economy. Keywords: Japanese current account; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published in Magnus Blomström, Byron Gangnes and Sumner La Croix, eds., Japan’s New Economy: Continuity and Change in the 21st Century, Oxford University Press, 2000. Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hai:wpaper:200010 Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC. |
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