Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements

Byron Gangnes () and Craig Gangnes ()
Additional contact information
Craig Gangnes: Department of Economics, Yokohama National University

No 200217, Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics

Abstract: Empirical evaluations of trade agreements often rely on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods to detect subsequent changes in trade flows. We conduct a more satisfactory test by evaluating an agreement in the context of a structural econometric model. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where trade agreements may cause structural changes in cointegrating vectors. This approach is applied to study the effect of several U.S.-Japan market-opening trade agreements; in three of seven industries we find evidence of structural change that may be related to trade agreements.

Keywords: structural break tests; U.S.-Japan trade agreements; import promotion policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2002
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_02-17.pdf First version, 2002 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hai:wpaper:200217

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.economics ... esearch/working.html

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Web Technician ().