Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries

Sèna Kimm Gnangnon
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Sèna Kimm Gnangnon: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper relies on the 'institutional debt rule' implemented in Franc Zone countries to assess whether the structural vulnerability of these countries matter for their probability to enter into excessive indebtedness. This structural vulnerability is measured by retrospective 'Economic Vulnerability Index' (EVI) recently computed jointly by the United Nations and Guillaumont et al., (2011). We observe evidence that the impact of 'EVI' is non-linear with respect to the probability of these countries to engage into excessive indebtedness and that, this effect appears to be the same for the two monetary areas belonging to the CFA Franc Zone countries: a rise of EVI induces a higher probability of excessive debt and for higher EVI, this probability declines. Consequently, international development institutions such as the Bretton Woods should take into account such vulnerability in their assessment of the adequate development policies and recommendations to these countries.

Keywords: Structural Vulnerability; Public debt; unconditional logit model; linear probability model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-11-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00749470
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