Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007

François Facchini (), Jean-Dominique Lafay () and Antoine Auberger ()
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François Facchini: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper discusses the question of electoral prediction based on politico-econometric models. It presents a brief historical sketch of this specific research domain in "political economy", and a synthesis of the present model-based predictions for the French 2007 presidential elections. Because the reviewed models predict different and somewhat opposed results, we suggest to use an ex ante arbitrage, based on a simple indicator, the Figaro-Sofrès popularity index for the socialist party. The arbitrage between potential winners appears to be very clear. As this paper is written six weeks ante eventum, it can be seen as a kind of "natural experiment" in itself, useful to test the predictive capacity of our selected indicator.

Keywords: political economy; public choice; electoral forecasting; political popularity; économie politique; choix publics; prévision électorale; popularité politique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00270445
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Published in Revue Française d'Economie, 2007, XXI (4), pp.5-23. ⟨10.3406/rfeco.2007.1687⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00270445

DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2007.1687

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