Intégration financière et régime de change dans les pays candidats

Mathilde Maurel

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: European Financial Integration and Exchange Rate Regimes in CEECs by Mathilde Maurel The Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs ) entering the EU in May 2004 are expected to have a monetary policy compatible with the ERM-II system to eventually enter EMU (European Monetary Union ). Abandoning an independent monetary policy could entail significant costs for countries in the process of catching up . However , these costs have probably been overestimated , biased by the traditional optimal currency area criteria . Firstly , these costs actually change depending on whether they are evaluated ex ante and ex post accession . Between times , financial integration is likely to increase significantly , which changes the evaluation parameters . Accession to the EU and greater capital mobility means that there is little room left for an independent monetary policy , especially in relatively small countries more vulnerable to speculative attacks . Secondly , while the link between choice of exchange rate regime and the underlying fundamentals is somewhat tenuous , the political determinants prove to be decisive . Keywords : exchange rate arrangements , accession to EMU , EU enlargement , international capital flows

Date: 2004-02
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Published in Economie et Prévision, 2004, 163, pp.17 - 32

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Journal Article: Intégration financière et régimes de change dans les pays candidats (2004)
Journal Article: Intégration financière et régimes de change dans les pays candidats (2004)
Working Paper: Intégration financière et régime de change dans les pays candidats (2004)
Working Paper: Intégration financière et régimes de change dans les pays candidats (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03417666

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