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Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies

Zorobabel Bicaba (), Daniel Kapp and Francesco Molteni ()

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify which factors explain why some countries are more prone to enjoy long durations of stability, while others experience crises in shorter intervals. To this end, we analyze the duration of stability periods between currency, debt, and banking crises from 1980 to 2008. We find that durations of tranquility between currency and debt crises are bimodally distributed, making conventional econometric models unsuitable. Therefore, we introduce an innovative econometric strategy, the Finite Mixture Model. Real and financial variables are found to have high predictive power for the spell of stability between currency crises, while for debt crises, the real interest rate is observed to be the best predictor. The time between the occurrence of systemic financial crises is prolonged through large-scale government interventions and IMF aid programs, while recapitalization turns out to have a negative impact.

Keywords: Crise financière; bimodalité; durée.; Financial crises; Finite mixture model; duration; bimodality. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00639869
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Published in 2011

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Journal Article: Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies (2011) Downloads
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