La dette publique française justifie-t-elle l'austérité budgétaire ?

Gaël Giraud, Florent Mc Isaac () and Rossi Abi Rafeh ()
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Florent Mc Isaac: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Rossi Abi Rafeh: ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: Recent talks claiming the necessity of austerity measures in France often take the unsustainibility of public debts as a starting point. In this analysis, we show that the current public debt levels in France are not a sufficient reason to undertake such austerity policies. To substantiate our claims, we apply a VAR methodology on six relevant macroeconomic French series. A negative shock of only -1% to public expenditures is found more likely to have recessionary effects (increased deficit, debt and a higher level of unemployment) rather than the expected positive effects. In particular, it would presumably increase unemployment in France by 1 million people, confirming that the main scenario threatening France today is a deflationary liquidity trap akin to the Japanese scenario.

Keywords: National debt; austerity; National Budget; Dette publique; fiscalité; austérité; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-12
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00841553v1
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Published in 2012

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Working Paper: La dette publique française justifie-t-elle l'austérité budgétaire ? (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00841553

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