Dynamic Consistency and Expected Utility with State Ambiguity

Antoine Billot and Vassili Vergopoulos ()
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Vassili Vergopoulos: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: While models of ambiguity are reputed to generate a basic tension between dynamic consistency and the Ellsberg choices, this paper identifies a third implicit ingredient of this tension, namely the parsimony rule, which enforces each state of nature to encode a well-defined unique observation. This paper then develops nonparsimonious interpretations of the state space to make the Ellsberg choices compatible with both expected utility and dynamic consistency. The state space may contain nonobservable states: a state is allowed to encode more than one observation, a pattern called state ambiguity. The presence of such ambiguous states motivates an explicit distinction between the decision-maker and the theory-maker, the latter designing the state space and eliciting the former's preferences.

Keywords: Ambiguity; State of nature; Epistemics; Dynamic consistency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-06
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01006698v1
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Working Paper: Dynamic Consistency and Expected Utility with State Ambiguity (2014)
Working Paper: Dynamic Consistency and Expected Utility with State Ambiguity (2014)
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