Peak Oil through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment

Henri Waisman, Julie Rozenberg (), Olivier Sassi and Jean-Charles Hourcade
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Henri Waisman: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Olivier Sassi: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Peak Oil refers to the future peak of world oil production and its impact on the economy. We assess its date, level and economic consequences using the general equilibrium model Imaclim-R. This framework captures the technical, geopolitical and macroeconomic determinants of Peak Oil, which emerges endogenously from their interplay under inertia and non-perfect expectations. A range of dates, from 2017 to 2039, is obtained, depending on assumptions about the reserves, the technical inertia affecting production and the market power of Middle-East producers. The bubble of oil export revenues associated with the post-Peak Oil increase of oil price and its economic consequences are also quantified. We delineate the space of parameters (discount rate ; degree of optimism about oil resources) under which a low short-term oil price may maximize the objective function of oil exporters (maximisation of oil rent, or of long term consumption).

Keywords: Peak Oil; oil revenues; CGE Modeling; pic pétrolier; revenus pétroliers; Equilibre général (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-09
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