Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions

Minh Ha-Duong

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Abstract: This paper discusses aspects of risk and uncertainty relevant in an interdisciplinary assessment of climate change policy. It opposes not only the objective approach versus the subjective approach, but also situations when precise probabilities are well founded versus situations of broader forms of error such as Knightian or deep uncertainty, incompleteness, vagueness. Additional human and social dimensions of ignorance: strategic uncertainties, surprises, values diversity, and taboos, are discussed. We argue that the broader forms of error affect all sciences, including those studying Nature. For these aspects the IPCC guidance notes provides an interdisciplinary unified approach on risk and uncertainty. This is a significant advance from a simple multidisciplinary justaposition of approaches. However, these guidance notes are not universal, they mostly omit the human and social dimensions of ignorance.

Keywords: risk; uncertainty; climate change; integrated assessment; risque; incertitude; changement climatique; évaluation intégrée (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-04-02
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Working Paper: Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions (2012)
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