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Introduction aux approches économiques de l'incertitude

Minh Ha-Duong

CIRED Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: This paper introduces a few words used by economists studying uncertainty, climate policy and integrated assessment models. Section one uses two pedagogical examples to define risk, uncertainty, surprise and contingent strategy. Regarding uncertainty that is not risk, subjective probabilities with safety-first criteria and value at risk; Shackle-Zadeh possibilities; Dempster-Shafer evidence theory as well as imprecise probabilities are discussed. Section two exposes how uncertainty is treated in integated assessment models applied to climate policy analysis. It deals first with risk analysis, exposing sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo methods and scenario building. Then the principles of bounding analysis are developped with viability theory. Finaly, the stochastic dynamic optimisation approach is illustrated.

Keywords: Changement climatique; Changement climatique.; Modèles intégrés; Probabilités imprécises; Utilité; Incertitude; Risque (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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