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Interactions d'échelles en économie: Application à l'évaluation intégré des dommages du changement climatique et des événements extrêmes

Stephane Hallegatte ()

CIRED Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Climate change damage assessments are commonly based on long term growth models that neglect disequilibrium processes, assumed to be transient over short periods. This thesis highlights, from a set of modelling exercises, how important the short-term transients and the endogenous economic variability are in the estimation of extreme events and climate change damages. It suggests the impossibility to evaluate the damages independently of a precise representation of economic growth and dynamics: damages are as sensitive to the nature and amount of impacts as to the dynamics of the economy they occur in. The uncertainty on economic damages from climate change stems thus both from an incomplete scientific knowledge of impacts and from the uncertainty on the future organisation of economies.

Keywords: dynamique économique; changement climatique; événements extrêmes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00008712
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Working Paper: Interactions d'échelles en économie: Application à l'évaluation intégré des dommages du changement climatique et des événements extrêmes (2005) Downloads
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