ANTLIA. Anticipation of lithium amount for energy transition. Insight for a methodological approach for the construction of critical minerals modelling and delivering scenarios

Anne Baschwitz, Vincent Bos, Elisabeth Le Net, Youcef Smadhi and Alice Marie
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Anne Baschwitz: TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay
Vincent Bos: TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay
Elisabeth Le Net: TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay
Youcef Smadhi: TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay
Alice Marie: LITEN / CEA-DES - Laboratoire d'Innovation pour les Technologies des Energies Nouvelles et les nanomatériaux - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INES - Institut National de L'Energie Solaire - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Insight for a methodological approach for the construction of critical minerals modelling and delivering scenarios This presentation is based on a value chain perspective. Crossing global lithium-based energy transition policies (decarbonized mobility in particular), it aims to offer methodological insights for the forecast of critical minerals through modelling and the constitution of resource intensive energy transition scenarios. The presentation will be based on a lithium system dynamic modelling, ANTLIA, a model developed on a World and European scales to 2050 to anticipate the evolution of lithium production and consumption and to establish a sovereignty index to anticipate European needs based on policies recommendations. We will present the framework of the model (modules and parameters) and the value chains (stocks, flows, offer, demand). We will show how dynamic system modellings can be useful to establish a reference scenario and to identify the sensibility of the parameters. Changing the value of parameters provide alternative scenarios built on two major dimensions: critical minerals energy transition systems (lithium-intensive systems) and indexes of sovereignty.

Date: 2023-10-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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Published in Governing Batteries? Articulating People and Places along Supply Chains, Oct 2023, Genève, Switzerland

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