Using Climate Analogues for Assessing Climate Change Economic Impacts in Urban Areas

Stephane Hallegatte, Philippe Ambrosi and Jean Charles Hourcade ()
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Philippe Ambrosi: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives
Jean Charles Hourcade: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper aims at proposing a way to get round the intrinsic deadlocks of the economic assessment of climate change impacts (absence of credible counterfactuals and of fully-fletched description of adaptation behaviours under uncertainty). First, we use the climate scenarios of 2 models of the PRUDENCE project (HadRM3H and ARPEGE) to search for cities whose present climates can be considered as reasonable analogues of the future climates of 17 European cities. These analogues meet rather strict criteria in terms of monthly mean temperature, total annual precipitations, and monthly mean precipitations. Second, we use these analogues as an heuristic tool to understand the main features of the adaptation required by climate change. The availability of two analogues for each city provides a useful estimate of the uncertainty on the required adaptation. Third we carry out a cost assessment for various adaptation strategies, taking into account the cost of possible ill-adaptations due to wrong anticipations in a context of large uncertainty (from sunk costs to lock-in in suboptimal adaptation choices). We demonstrate the gap between an enumerative approach under perfect expectation and a calculation accounting for uncertainty and spill-over effects on economic growth.

Keywords: climate change; economic impact; urban areas; city; analogues (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-06-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (38)

Published in Climatic Change, 2007, 82 (1), pp.47-60. ⟨10.1007/s10584-006-9161-z⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00164627

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9161-z

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