Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth

Theophile Azomahou, Claude Diebolt and Tapas Mishra
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Theophile Azomahou: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper studies the spatial effects of (stochastic) demographic system on economic growth. Population growth shocks (irrespective of aggregate or disaggregate form) depict spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations of many countries depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. Proposing a step further from the recent emphasis of temporal analysis of demographic system, this paper examines the persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal dynamic characteristics of the demographic system in a spatial vector autoregressive model. We construct ‘demographic distance' metrics based on both average age-shares and the stochastic time series characteristics of aggregate and disaggregated population growth and show that demographic dynamics in the last four decades have had discernible effects on volatility and non-linearity in cross-country economic growth.

Keywords: Spatial persistence; Long-memory; Demographic dynamics; Economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, 2006, 31 (1), pp.98-127. ⟨10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.08.013⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Spatial persistence of demographic shocks and economic growth (2009)
Working Paper: Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00279269

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.08.013

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