Peut-on parler de déficit jumeaux pour la Turquie ? Une étude empirique sur la période 1988-2000

Thomas Jobert () and Irem Zeyneloğlu
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Thomas Jobert: GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UR2 - Université de Rennes 2, GSU - Université Galatasaray
Irem Zeyneloğlu: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GSU - Université Galatasaray

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Abstract: For the last two decades Turkey has had both current account and budget deficits. By using the tools of VAR method, such as cointegration, Granger causality tests and instantaneous causality tests, we show that the existence of these two deficits in Turkey cannot be defined as "twin deficits". The persistence of budget deficits, in spite of primary surpluses, is due to the high level of real interest rates and to the burden of debts caused by high real interest rates. The current account deficit is due to Turkey's production structure. Specifically, Turkey imports intermediate goods in order to export them later as finished goods.

Keywords: Causality; Twin deficits; Budget deficit; Déficits jumeaux; Déficit budgétaire; Causalité (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Published in Économie Internationale, 2006, 1 (105), pp.63-83. ⟨10.3917/ecoi.105.0063⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00279391

DOI: 10.3917/ecoi.105.0063

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