Joint Modelling of Gas and Electricity spot prices

Noufel Frikha () and Vincent Lemaire ()
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Noufel Frikha: LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Vincent Lemaire: LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits the correlations structures for the two commodities. The dynamics are based on Ornstein processes with parameterized diffusion coefficients. Moreover, using the empirical distributions of the spot prices, we derive a class of such parameterized diffusions which captures the most salient statistical properties: stationarity, spikes and heavy-tailed distributions. The associated calibration procedure is based on standard and efficient statistical tools. We calibrate the model on French market for electricity and on UK market for gas, and then simulate some trajectories which reproduce well the observed prices behavior. Finally, we illustrate the importance of the correlation structure and of the presence of spikes by measuring the risk on a power plant portfolio.

Keywords: Electricity markets; spot price modelling; ergodic diffusion; saddlepoint (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-03-06
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00421289v3
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Published in Applied Mathematical Finance, 2012, 20 (1), pp.69-93. ⟨10.1080/1350486X.2012.658220⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00421289

DOI: 10.1080/1350486X.2012.658220

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