Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite and David Schmeidler

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Abstract: Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.

Keywords: Probability; Uncertainty; Economic modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (78)

Published in Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2008, Vol.22,n°3 Summer, pp.173-188. ⟨10.1257/jep.22.3.173⟩

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Journal Article: Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling (2009)
Journal Article: Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00463394

DOI: 10.1257/jep.22.3.173

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