RISQUE ASSOCIE A L'UTILISATION DE LA LOI DE BENFORD POUR DETECTER DES VENTES FRAUDULEUSES DE BIENS INNOVANTS A LA MODE

Adrien Bonache and Karen Moris
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Karen Moris: LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Benford's law has been promoted as providing the auditors with a turnkey solution for fraud detection. The purpose of this paper is to show it is not always possible to detect fraudulent sales with that law. We use sales in volume of game consoles in Japan (since 1989), in United-States, in France, in Germany and in United-Kingdom (since 2000). After reviewing briefly the literature and our study design, the chi-square test and the bias analysis were used to measure the goodness-of-fit to Benford's law. Despite the absence of actual fraud, these sale series of fashion goods are not significantly in conformity with Benford's law. Thus, for the detection of fraudulent sales in this sector, the Benford's law could be useless.

Keywords: Benford's law; fashion sales; detection of fraud; non-linear dynamical system.; Loi de Benford; ventes de biens à la mode; détection de fraudes; audit; système dynamique non-linéaire (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-05-10
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Published in Crises et nouvelles problématiques de la Valeur, May 2010, Nice, France. pp.CD-ROM

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00476950

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