Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies

Itzhak Gilboa, Antoine Billot, Dov Samet and David Schmeidler

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Abstract: A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.

Keywords: Probability; similarity; case-based reasoning; relative frequencies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-07
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

Published in Econometrica, 2005, Vol.73, n°4, pp. 1125-1136. ⟨10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x⟩

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Chapter: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2012)
Journal Article: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2005)
Working Paper: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2004)
Working Paper: Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00481235

DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x

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