Exploring Tourism/ Leisure GHG Emissions in 2050: the Case of France

Jean-Paul Ceron and Ghislain Dubois
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Jean-Paul Ceron: OMIJ - Observatoire des Mutations Institutionnelles et Juridiques - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges
Ghislain Dubois: TEC - Tourisme, Transports, Territoires Environnement Conseil - Cabinet conseil

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Abstract: This paper deals with the prediction of French tourism/leisure mobility demands in 2050, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis is based on a model of household tourism/leisure mobility patterns based on four modes of transport. A sensitivity analysis quantifies possible changes in greenhouse gas emissions according to hypotheses related to demographics, economic situations, the international security context, transport technology and policy, the tourism market, lifestyles and cultural change. The results show the high sensitivity of the model to economic parameters, and that French tourism travel still has considerable growth potential. Any technological improvements could be offset by low investment in transport infrastructure and by permissive 'transport pricing'. 'Business as usual' trends imply that French tourism/ leisure GHG emissions could increase by 90% by 2050, and passenger-kilometres by 200%. Very long distance trips and air transport are identified as major problems, caused by a small group of frequent travellers.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions; modelling; scenario analysis; tourism sustainability; transport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Published in Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2006, 14 (2), pp.172-192. ⟨10.1080/09669580608669051⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00494416

DOI: 10.1080/09669580608669051

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