Decision-making under uncertainty in drug development

Saïna Hassanzadeh, Didier Gourc (), François Marmier () and Sophie Bougaret
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Saïna Hassanzadeh: CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], Fondation pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle - Institut pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle
Didier Gourc: CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]
François Marmier: CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]
Sophie Bougaret: MANAGEOS - MANAGEOS

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Abstract: In pharmaceutical industry, decision-makers have to decide whether to continue drug development projects which are very expensive, risky and long. Such decisions are made collectively, under a high degree of uncertainty and in non-emergency situations. The major problem in this context is indecision. In order to improve the decision-making process in practice, we need to characterize and analyze situations of decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new definition of uncertainty that takes human factors in its characterization into account. Then, we present a typology of uncertainty generators that helps us recognize and explore its causal factors. Additionally, we represent decision-making process in pharmaceutical R\&D illustrating the role of different actors and their interactions in decision-making. This should help decision-makers adopt proactive practices instead of reactive ones.

Date: 2010-11-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00745303v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in 24th World Congress International Project Management Association, Nov 2010, Istanbul, Turkey, France. pp.1

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