Predictive density construction and accuracy testing with multiple possibly misspecified diffusion models

Valentina Corradi () and Norman Swanson ()
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Valentina Corradi: Department of Economics - University of Warwick [Coventry]

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Abstract: This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. We then construct tests that are in the spirit of Diebold and Mariano (1995) and White (2000). In order to establish the asymptotic properties of our tests, we also develop a recursive variant of the nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood estimator of Fermanian and Salani é (2004). In an empirical illustration, the predictive densities from several models of the one-month federal funds rates are compared.

Keywords: C22; C51; Block bootstrap; Diffusion processes; Jumps; Nonparametric simulated quasi maximum likelihood; Parameter estimation error; Recursive estimation; Stochastic volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-03-05
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00796745v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Published in Econometrics, 2011, 161 (2), pp.304. ⟨10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.12.009⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Predictive density construction and accuracy testing with multiple possibly misspecified diffusion models (2011)
Working Paper: Predictive Density Construction and Accuracy Testing with Multiple Possibly Misspecified Diffusion Models (2011)
Working Paper: Predictive density construction and accuracy testing with multiple possibly misspecified diffusion models (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00796745

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.12.009

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