The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters

Richard Deaves, Erik Lüders and Michael Schröder ()
Additional contact information
Richard Deaves: McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario], Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) - Center for European Economic Research (ZEW)
Michael Schröder: Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) - Center for European Economic Research (ZEW)

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: As a group, market forecasters are overconfident in the sense that they are miscalibrated. While overconfidence is persistent, respondents do exhibit some degree of rational learning in that they widen confidence intervals after failure as much as they narrow them after success. Market experience exacerbates overconfidence, primarily through knowledge deterioration.

Keywords: Social; Sciences; &; Humanities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-07-31
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00849407v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (49)

Published in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2010, 75 (3), pp.402. ⟨10.1016/j.jebo.2010.05.001⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-00849407v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00849407

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2010.05.001

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().