Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

Douglas K. R. Robinson (), Lu Huang, Yan Guo and Alan L. Porter
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Douglas K. R. Robinson: CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Lu Huang: School of Management and Economics - BIT - Beijing Institute of Technology
Yan Guo: Management Science and Engineering, - BIT - Beijing Institute of Technology
Alan L. Porter: School of Public Policy - Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta]

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Abstract: "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases.We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making.

Keywords: Biosensors; Nanotechnology; New and emerging science and technologies; Future-oriented technology analyses; Technology forecasting; Innovation pathways; Brain implants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-01070417v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (45)

Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, 80 (2), pp.267-285. ⟨10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.004⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01070417

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.004

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