Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy
Valeria Jana Schwanitz,
Valentina Bosetti (),
Leonidas Paroussos (),
Charlie Wilson and
Detlef P. Van Vuuren
Additional contact information
Volker Krey: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Gunnar Luderer: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Hal Turton: PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
Detlef P. Van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University [Utrecht]
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Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.
Keywords: Climate policy; Integrated assessment models; Energy system models; Model diagnostics; Climate change economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, 2015, 90 (A), pp.45-61. ⟨10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020⟩
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Journal Article: Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy (2015)
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