Extension and calibration of a Hawkes-based optimal execution model

Aurélien Alfonsi () and Pierre Blanc
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Aurélien Alfonsi: CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées, MATHRISK - Mathematical Risk Handling - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Centre Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique
Pierre Blanc: CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées, MATHRISK - Mathematical Risk Handling - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Centre Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique

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Abstract: We provide some theoretical extensions and a calibration protocol for our former dynamic optimal execution model. The Hawkes parameters and the propagator are estimated independently on financial data from stocks of the CAC40. Interestingly, the propagator exhibits a smoothly decaying form with one or two dominant time scales, but only so after a few seconds that the market needs to adjust after a large trade. Motivated by our estimation results, we derive the optimal execution strategy for a multi-exponential Hawkes kernel and backtest it on the data for round trips. We find that the strategy is profitable on average when trading at the midprice, which is in accordance with violated martingale conditions. However, in most cases, these profits vanish when we take bid-ask costs into account.

Date: 2016-08-01
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Published in Market microstructure and liquidity, 2016, ⟨10.1142/S2382626616500052⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01169686

DOI: 10.1142/S2382626616500052

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