Integrated models, scenarios and dynamics of climate, land use and common birds

Jean-Sauveur Ay, Raja Chakir, Luc Doyen (), Frédéric Jiguet () and Paul Leadley
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Frédéric Jiguet: CESCO - Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation - MNHN - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Paul Leadley: ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Reconciling food, fiber and energy production with biodiversity conservation is among the greatest challenges of the century, especially in the face of climate change. Model-based scenarios linking climate, land use and biodiversity can be exceptionally useful tools for decision support in this context. We present a modeling framework that links climate projections, private land use decisions including farming, forest and urban uses and the abundances of common birds as an indicator of biodiversity. Our major innovation is to simultaneously integrate the direct impacts of climate change and land use on biodiversity as well as indirect impacts mediated by climate change effects on land use, all at very fine spatial resolution. In addition, our framework can be used to evaluate incentive-based conservation policies in terms of land use and biodiversity over several decades. The results for our case study in France indicate that the projected effects of climate change dominate the effects of land use on bird abundances. As a conservation policy, implementing a spatially uniform payment for pastures has a positive effect in relatively few locations and only on the least vulnerable bird species.

Keywords: Common birds; Integrated models; Land use; Incentive policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Published in Climatic Change, 2014, 126 (1-2), pp.13-30. ⟨10.1007/s10584-014-1202-4⟩

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Journal Article: Integrated models, scenarios and dynamics of climate, land use and common birds (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01173053

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1202-4

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