Calibration of agricultural risk programming models

Athanasios Petsakos () and Stelios Rozakis
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Athanasios Petsakos: ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech

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Abstract: Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) is one of the most commonly used methods for calibrating activity programming models. In this article we consider PMP as a calibration method for risk programming models with a mean-variance (E-V) specification. We argue that the restrictive theoretical assumptions employed by typical linear E-V models limit their applicability in analyzing the effects of decoupled payments on agricultural production decisions. Furthermore, the requirement for eliciting a risk aversion coefficient renders such models incompatible with the PMP method. For this reason we propose a nonlinear E-V specification and develop a PMP-based procedure for its calibration which does not aim at introducing (further) nonlinearities in the objective function, but at recovering the "true" distribution of wealth that will allow the final model to reproduce base year observations. We also examine how our approach relates to the recent PMP developments on calibration against elasticity priors and we show how such priors can be used for the calibration of the nonlinear E-V model.

Keywords: Agricultural economics; Utility theory; E-V analysis; Farm model; Positive Mathematical Programming; ouput; aversion; uncertainty; preference; revenue; optimization; expected utility; mean-variance; generalized maximum-entropy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Published in European Journal of Operational Research, 2015, 242 (2), pp.536 - 545. ⟨10.1016/j.ejor.2014.10.018⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01173062

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.10.018

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