Uranium resources, scenarios, nuclear and energy dynamics

A. Bidaud (), Silvana Mima (), S Gabriel, A Monnet, G Mathonnière, Patrick Criqui (), M Cuney and P Bruneton
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A. Bidaud: LPSC - Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - IN2P3 - Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS - INPG - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Silvana Mima: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
S Gabriel: GeoRessources - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CREGU - Centre de recherches sur la géologie des matières premières minérales et énergétiques - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
A Monnet: GeoRessources - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CREGU - Centre de recherches sur la géologie des matières premières minérales et énergétiques - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
G Mathonnière: GeoRessources - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CREGU - Centre de recherches sur la géologie des matières premières minérales et énergétiques - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Patrick Criqui: équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
M Cuney: GeoRessources - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CREGU - Centre de recherches sur la géologie des matières premières minérales et énergétiques - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
P Bruneton: LPSC - Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - IN2P3 - Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS - INPG - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: A dynamic simulation of coupled supply and demand of energy, resources and nuclear reactors is done with the global model Prospective Outlook for Long Term Energy Supply (POLES) over this century. In this model, both electricity demand and uranium supply are not independent of the cost of all base load electricity suppliers. Uranium consuming Thermal Neutron Reactors and future generation, free from the uranium market once started, breeder reactors are only one part of the market and are in a global competition, not limited to the other nuclear generation. In this paper we present a new model of the impact of uranium scarcity on the development of nuclear reactors. Many scenarios rely on the subjective definition of ultimate uranium resources. We suggest that when uranium will mainly be extracted together with other resources, its cost should not be simply a function of cumulated uranium mined but also of mine yearly outputs. We describe the sensitivities of our model to breeder reactor physical performance indicators. Used fuels can be seen as a liability or as a source of usable material and a scarce resource limiting fast reactor startups in fast development in India or China. We present the impact of synergetic strategies where countries with opposite strategies share used fuels.

Keywords: scenario; uranium scarcity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-09-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01241438v1
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Published in Global 2015 : 21st International Conference & Exhibition: "Nuclear Fuel Cycle For a Low-Carbon Future", SFEN, Sep 2015, Paris, France. pp.72-78

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