On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries

Claudiu Albulescu (), Daniel Goyeau and Cornel Oros
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Daniel Goyeau: Axe 2 (2011-2016) : « Marchés, Cultures de consommation, Autonomie et Migrations » (MSHS Poitiers) - MSHS de Poitiers - Maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, CPER INSECT - CPER "INnovation Sociale, Economique et Culturelle dans des Territoires en mutation" (MSHS Poitiers) - MSHS de Poitiers - Maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers [UAR 3565] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: We investigate the role of money in explaining the long run inflation in 12 CEE countries, using monthly data for the period 2004-2013. We use a panel cointegration approach and recently developed empirical techniques as the panel fully modified and the panel dynamic regression procedures. Beside the role of interest rate and economic growth rate in explaining inflation, our cointegration equation explores the role of broad money (M2) growth. We also look to the M2 components, namely M1 and the difference between M2 and M1. We find no cointegration relationship either for the broad money or for the narrow money. However, money created by the banking sector explains the inflation in CEE countries in the long run. This last finding characterizes the entire panel, the panel of the seven CEE countries candidates to the Euro area, but not the panel of Euro area members. The findings are robust regarding the consideration of the income velocity's impact on the money in circulation.

Keywords: Money; inflation; Panel cointegration; CEE countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-08-01
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Published in The Economic Research Guardian, 2015, 5 (1), pp.73-96

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01257389

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