Interest rates, Eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments

Vincent Duwicquet (), Jacques Mazier and Jamel Saadaoui ()
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Jacques Mazier: CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Jamel Saadaoui: CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The euro crisis sheds light on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a heterogeneous monetary union. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, it remains very few efficient alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole eurozone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro remains overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially for Germany. This paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone thanks to a FEER approach. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds. Overvaluations amount to negative competitiveness shocks in Southern countries. In this respect, three main results are found. Firstly, an increase of intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribute to reduce the debt burden and induce a partial recovery but public debt would increase. Secondly, the implementation of Eurobonds as a tool to partially mutualize European sovereign debt would have a rather similar positive impact with a public debt limited to 70 percent of GDP. Thirdly, Eurobonds could also be used to finance large European projects which could impulse a stronger recovery in the entire zone with stabilized current account balances.

Keywords: Euro crisis; Exchange rate misalignments; Eurobonds; Interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-09-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-opm
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01359820v1
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Published in Economics, Economic Policies and Sustainable Growth in the Wake of the Crisis, Sep 2016, Ancône, Italy

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01359820

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