Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view

Gilles Dufrénot (), Karine Gente () and Frédia Monsia
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Frédia Monsia: GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper tries to identify the macro-financial imbalances that exposed the euro area countries to fiscal stress before the outbreak of the European debt crises. Contrary to conventional wisdom that interprets fiscal stress in terms of fiscal sustainability, we focus on short-term fiscal vulnerability as reflected by the conditions of debt refinancing in the sovereign bond markets. We find that market-based indicators capturing risk perceptions of sovereign debts have been influenced by the indicators defined in the European Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) and by variables of financial vulnerability. When pricing the risk of sovereign bonds, the holders of government debts take into account, not only the macroeconomic imbalances, but also factors such as banking distress, corporate bond risk, liquidity risks in the interbank market or the volatility of stock prices.

Keywords: Economie; quantitative (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-01440301
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016, 67, pp.123--146. ⟨10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.04.002⟩

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Journal Article: Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01440301

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.04.002

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