A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process

Gilles Dufrénot (), Adelya Ospanova and Alain Sand-Zantman ()
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Adelya Ospanova: DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Alain Sand-Zantman: GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations: interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy is not unambiguous; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Keywords: Central Asian CIS countries; Transition economies; Kazakhstan; Macroeconomic stabilization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-02
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Published in Economic Change and Restructuring, 2014, 47 (1), pp. 1-39. ⟨10.1007/s10644-012-9126-3⟩

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Journal Article: A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process (2014)
Working Paper: A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01463114

DOI: 10.1007/s10644-012-9126-3

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