Aggregated Versus Individual Land-Use Models: Modeling Spatial Autocorrelation to Increase Predictive Accuracy

Jean-Sauveur Ay (), Raja Chakir () and Julie Le Gallo ()
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Jean-Sauveur Ay: CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement
Raja Chakir: ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech
Julie Le Gallo: CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement

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Abstract: The objective of this paper is to compare the predictive accuracy of individual and aggregated econometric models of land-use choices. We argue that modeling spatial autocorrelation is a comparative advantage of aggregated models due to the smaller number of observation and the linearity of the outcome. The question is whether modeling spatial autocorrelation in aggregated models is able to provide better predictions than individual ones. We consider a complete partition of space with four land-use classes: arable, pasture, forest, and urban. We estimate and compare the predictive accuracies of individual models at the plot level (514,074 observations) and of aggregated models at a regular 12 × 12 km grid level (3,767 observations). Our results show that modeling spatial autocorrelation allows to obtain more accurate predictions at the aggregated level when the appropriate predictors are used.

Keywords: numerical models; Scale effects; Discrete choice modeling; Predictive accuracy; Spatial econometrics; modèle; économétrie spatiale; usage du sol; choix discret (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Published in Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2017, 22 (2), pp.129-145. ⟨10.1007/s10666-016-9523-5⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01496823

DOI: 10.1007/s10666-016-9523-5

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