Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries

Ahlem Dahem and Dhafer Saïdane
Additional contact information
Dhafer Saïdane: LEM - Lille - Economie et Management - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of 2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Inflation Drivers; Inflation Forecasting; Monetary Model; Mark-Up Model; Phillips Curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Journal of World Economic Research, 2014, 3 (6), pp.33. ⟨10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01533559

DOI: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().