THE IMPACT OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THE GREEK ECONOMY TO EMI IN THE STOCKMARKET: BAYES, NESTED ESTIMATION OF THE STOCK TRENDS

Costas Kyritsis
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Costas Kyritsis: TEI - Technological Educational Institute of Epirus

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Abstract: In this short paper we discuss the impact of the convergence of the Greek Economy to the European Monetary Integration on the Athens Stock-market. We analyze how magnitudes of macroeconomics influence the decisions of the investors. We propose a quantitative model of demand and supply in the Stock-market inspired from Voltera's work in Ecology and the equations of populations in competition. We also propose a new statistical method in estimation based on Bayes estimators and the idea of Mandelbrot on self-similar fractals. We test the method at the impact on price changes, immediately after the devaluation during March of 1998.

Keywords: European Monetray Integration; Forecasting; Stock-Exchanges (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-01-15
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Published in the Journal Archives of Economic History, 1999

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01552352

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