Choc des termes de l'échange et balance courante: une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)

Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop ()
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Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop: CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion

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Abstract: The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of temporary terms of trade shocks on the private savings and the current account of the French economy. Using an inter-temporel framework which distinguishes agents' consumption for three types of goods (importables, exportables and non-tradables), an estimation in two stages leads to the calculation of intra-temporal and inter-temporal elasticities of substitution which explain current account fluctuations. The estimated values of these parameters are rela- tively low in France, so that substitution effects do not compensate inter-temporal smooth- ing of consumption effects. Consequently, an adverse and unanticipated terms of trade shock deteriorates the current account of the French economy.

Keywords: Inter-Temporal Models of the Current Account; Elasticities of Substitution; Smoothing out of Consumption.; modèle intertemporel de la balance courante; élasticités de substitution; lissage de la consommation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01618699
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Published in Economie Internationale-La revue du CEPII-La documentation française, 2001, 86 (2), pp.27-47

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