The European crisis and migration to Germany

Simone Bertoli, Herbert Brücker and Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga
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Herbert Brücker: IAB - Institute for Advanced Biosciences / Institut pour l'Avancée des Biosciences (Grenoble) - CHUGA - Centre Hospitalier Universitaire [CHU Grenoble] - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - EFS - Etablissement français du sang - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA [2016-2019] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019]

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Abstract: The size of migration flows to Germany from other European countries surged in the aftermath of the 2010 European crisis, and this paper explores the main determinants of this large increase. International migrants tend to move more than once in their lives, and migration episodes to Germany make no exception in this respect. This paper explores some relevant implications of this simple observation for the estimation of gravity models, which is done here with bilateral monthly migration data. We demonstrate that ignoring the sequential nature of migration decisions gives rise to multilateral resistance to migration, thus substantially biasing the estimates. We also show that the expectations about future economic conditions at origin significantly influence bilateral migration flows to Germany.

Keywords: International; migration; Multiple; destinations; Dynamic; discrete; choice; model; Expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Published in Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2016, 60, pp.61 - 72. ⟨10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.06.012⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01687482

DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.06.012

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